Although I have been too busy to post regularly on this blog (you all miss me terribly, right?), I’ve still been taking a great interest in political news and following the presidential race especially closely. So I thought I’d share a few thoughts on the overall state of the race, and give a few of my predictions.
Why Obama Will Win
I’m heartened by the fact that Barack Obama is leading in the popular vote tallies, even as the race in the battleground states appears to be tightening. But I’m not taking these polls seriously. I’ve been disappointed before when Kerry, Gore, and Dukakis led in the summer opinion polls only to see the Republican pull ahead in the fall. It’s quite possible that 2008 will have a similar dynamic.
I still expect Obama to pull off a victory, and quite possibly an electoral college landslide. If that happens, it will be for two reasons: first, the electorate is focused on domestic policy; second, Obama manages to neutralize voters’ concerns about his ability to be commander-in-chief.
My own experience of how I came to support Obama over Hillary Clinton seems instructive. Last year, I viewed both candidates as excellent overall, but each with significant flaws. It took me quite a while (more than a year, in fact) for Obama to clinch the deal and win my vote. It was only when push came to shove (the Washington state primary loomed) that I decided.
I know that most American voters pay far less attention to politics than I do, so I don’t expect them to warm up to a newcomer overnight. John McCain enjoys an advantage right now because he’s more familiar and has far more experience on the national scene.
Obama’s biggest electability problem has been well-known even before Clinton made “ready on day one” her mantra. Obama is a junior Senator who ran for the presidency with only a couple of years in the Senate. The media hype, fawning fans, and celebrity testimonials have contributed to the feeling (however unjustified) that he’s more style than substance.
My decision to support Obama over the more seasoned Clinton was agonizing. I felt that Clinton, for all her inauthenticity and her poorly managed campaign, was more than acceptable. She was the “safer” choice, and I deeply resented Obama’s decision to run for president in 2008 (instead of paying his dues and running in 2012 or 2016). How could he ask me to roll the dice and have faith that he could succeed at the most difficult job in the world? Luckily, I changed my heart and turned out not to be too cynical.
Now the opinion polls tell us that voters feel that McCain is “safer”, Obama is “riskier”. By nearly a 2:1 margin they feel McCain would be the stronger commander-in-chief. Basically Obama has yet to seal the deal.
But this isn’t such bad news when you consider that many voters won’t really be tuning on the campaign until the fall. By then, Obama will be a much more familiar face and images of him looking very presidential on his overseas tour will have changed many perceptions. Obama has a big job to do, but every day he continues to justify our faith in his superb competence and skills. He’s got plenty of time to succeed, even if the race gets even closer.
Why McCain Will Lose
Like most Americans, I have residual warm feelings about the John McCain who ran for president in 2000. He seemed the authentic maverick, a rare Republican who put his own ideals above party interest and often spoke uncomfortable truths (even if this image was partially manufactured by unduly biased media coverage). Now it seems this McCain is missing in action.
What an enormous disappointment his campaign has been! He has proven to be an underwhelming manager of a terrible campaign, bankrupting it twice and turning over its management team faster than a McDonald’s restaurant changes employees. He has repeatedly made alarmingly intemperate statements that paint his opponents and all who dare challenge him as unpatriotic traitors. He has flip-flopped on many issues in order to appeal to the right wing of his party. His reputation for “straight talk” is indelibly damaged.
Finally, he has made serious gaffes so often that I’ve become genuinely worried that he is not in sufficient command of his faculties to be qualified for the presidency. To put it bluntly, he’s past his prime. The more Americans see of him, the more they will conclude he’s too old for the job. I’m not being ageist. Maybe there’s a vigorous 71-year-old who’s up for it, but McCain’s not the one.
Perhaps McCain’s greatest failure has been his unwillingness to spell out his “vision thing”. Surely he will try to remedy this by urging some kind of Renew America’s Greatness theme at the Republican convention. I’m betting this effort won’t be enough for McCain to turn his campaign around. But who knows? If McCain’s surrogates and “shadow campaign” succeed in painting Obama as untrustworthy and therefore too risky, then he may yet pull off an upset.
Who Obama Will Choose as V-P
The most important decision Obama must make between now and November will be whether or not to select a vice presidential nominee who will be perceived to “beef up” the ticket’s foreign policy credentials. If he selects Joe Biden, Chuck Hagel, Sam Nunn, or Wesley Clark, there will be no doubt that Obama is trying to cover his weakness on foreign affairs. This might soothe the fears of swing voters and neutralize McCain’s strong suit, but it also might shift public attention away from domestic affairs onto foreign affairs. If Obama plays the game on McCain’s favored territory, he’ll be sorry.
I think the ideal candidate for Obama is one who is immediately perceived as a credible commander-in-chief, but who is not primarily known for his or her foreign policy strengths. Joe Biden could almost meet this hurdle, but he is so strongly identified with foreign affairs expertise that the media spotlight would probably turn too much away from domestic policy. Who could help Obama overcome his perceived “experience” deficit while still accenting his domestic policy strengths?
Among all the major names floated for vice president, I see only two candidates who can fit this bill: Hillary Clinton and Evan Bayh. Tough-as-nails Clinton is widely seen as possessing the knowledgeability and cool temperament to be commander-in-chief, but her passion is undoubtedly domestic affairs. Bayh, the two-term Indiana Governor, has impeccable executive experience. And he has a moderate reputation (former Chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council) and years of experience on the Armed Services and Intelligence committees.
If Obama’s decision comes down to Clinton or Bayh, the smart better should go with Bayh. Clinton’s many negatives are well-known (most importantly, her unpopularity with swing voters). But Bayh seems to have all the right mix of attributes: he’s telegenic, he has a national reputation, he has experience winning votes in red states, he hails from the Midwest and could help in Ohio and Michigan (even if Indiana is a lost cause), and he actually seems to want the job of vice president.
Bayh’s most important asset: he’s boring. When he’s partnered with a rock star presidential nominee, his blandness would help to give the ticket just the right temperament. Obama is the quintessential fiery Leo. Bayh is the quintessential earthy Capricorn. An earth sign veep grounds fire in a good way. Hey, if the astrology symbolism seems to fit, I’ll roll with it.
Who McCain Will Choose as V-P
I’m sorry, but I just can’t get excited about this question. If you can picture McCain as the GOP’s Snow White … (see, that wasn’t so hard, was it?) … guess who Pawlenty, Huckabee, Romney, Lieberman, Ridge, Palin, and Jindal are?
If I were a gambler, I wouldn’t place a bet. But what the hell, I’ll guess McCain goes with Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Crist has fans across the political spectrum, he hails from a swing state that McCain badly needs to win, his age and executive experience nicely complement McCain’s, and he seems to genuinely want the job.
I also imagine that McCain places a tremendous value on rewarding loyalty. Because loyalty is honorable and noble, of course, just the qualities McCain thinks of himself possessing. McCain owes his Florida victory to Crist’s timely endorsement, and he owes his primary victory largely to his campaign’s momentum coming out of the Florida contest. In the end, he’ll reward his “king-maker”.
Crist may seal McCain’s Florida vote, but he is unlikely to be a game changer. I can’t see that he’ll cost McCain any votes, though, unless some unflattering news comes prancing “out of the closet”, if you get my drift.
Postscript
I’m from Seattle. Locally, there are two very important concerns on the ballot for November that I know of; however, there hasn’t been much to watch closely yet.
The first issue is the Governor’s race, which is going to be a squeaker. In 2004, Christine Gregoire beat Dino Rossi by only 192 votes. Recent polls show the race tied (again) between the incumbent Democrat and the Republican nominee. Anti-Dino ads have been running nonstop for weeks. I think Gregoire will probably lose a very close race, a victim of the strong anti-incumbent mood in the state. But that’s no reason not to work for her election!
The second local issue is Sound Transit 2, a proposal that will expand the light rail system to the suburbs by raising the state sales tax from 6.5 to 7.0 percent. It looks like the smartest transit proposal that King County has seen in the last few years (since voters killed the monorail boondoggle), but I would bet the measure fails. Last year’s transit package got voted down, and voters are unlikely to raise sales taxes when they’re already concerned about the economy.
P.P.S.
I’m very frustrated that my blog’s home page has decided (on its own, I assure you) that it wants to be virtually all italics. There’s no code in my blog posts, css, or WordPress templates that should be causing it, so far as I can tell. Damn gremlins. Sorry about the hard-to-read italics. I hope eventually to find a fix.
The first draft of this post was published on TPM Cafe.
Sphere: Related Content
Technorati Tags: McCain, Obama, politics